OOC: Akitsu Expansion into Belau

[Zabuza825]

Expanding Country: Akitsu
EC.'s Government Type: Constitutional monarchy (newly-established one, at the onset of this campaign)

Campaign Setting: 1415-ish
Campaign Goal: The islands below.


When did you last have an Expansion? I don't think Akitsu's ever really had one?
When was the Expanding Country's last military conflict? OOC'ly, likely the military intervention in Singan. IC'ly at the time this campaign takes place, likely the Kingdom of Akitsu's expansion but had no real bearing on the country that eventually unified Akitsu.
Why do you seek to expand? IC'ly, it would be a mix of Akitian nationalism and business interests in the islands. OOC'ly, I've been eyeing those islands for a while.

Campaign Plot
The islands of Belau are a recently-unified kingdom that has been modernizing itself in an attempt to stave off modernization. As part of it, it opened itself up to foreign investment. Rich businessman from the Empire of Akitsu began investing in the plantation industry in the islands. Eventually the plantations became very large exporters of sugar and other crops to Akitsu, with the businesses importing laborers from Akitsu proper to help the plantations grow when local labor proved insufficient. The business owners, however, are unhappy with the arrangement as they would still have to pay tariffs when the goods are imported to Akitsu. As a result, they start pushing for independence.

The hope is that they would eventually take over the government of Belau by claiming Akitian assets are threatened by the local government to gain the support of the Akitian military and seek annexation with Akitsu afterwards, but the RP will start before this happens while the plantation owners are still plotting.

Potential for Other Player Involvement:
I'm not sure off the top of my head as I'm not familiar with the diplomatic situation surrounding these islands at the time of this happening. However, I can see other nations being at least somewhat concerned as the islands could be used as a refueling and resupply station for ships seeking to start crossing the Aesean ocean.

I am sure that diplomatically there would be many opportunities for other player involvement, if any country really cares about those islands.

How your country may evolve from success:
It could embolden the Akitian government in a drive for colonization, in an attempt to be seen as equals by Brigidnan and Kvaennan nations.

How your country may evolve from defeat:
It would push the Akitian government to modernize further to ensure Akitian independence.

History and plot:
The islands of Belau, was inhabited thousands of years ago by the Tsuuk peoples. A group of extensive seafaring navigators, masters of navigation using the stars, they sailed in canoes from Ostara and settled in the islands they could come to call Belau. Upon settlement they developed a matrilineal society, with there being many Chiefdoms each vying for control over the  islands. Socially they developed a two-class system, with the Achi'i (Priests and Priestesses, Chiefs, Nobility) at the top and Tsuuki (everyone else) on the bottom. They separated into many kingdoms, once united in ancient times under a ruler named Hakau but not united since.

First contact between Akitsu and the Tsuuk peoples happened in 723, when some Tsuuk fisherman were blown off course and landed on Akitsu almost starved. Since then it is known that Akitian and Tsuuk fisherman would occasionally be blown off course and end up on the other islands. Each side knew of the existence of the other, but no real further contact was made. Akitians at the time called the islands of Belau "Tsukishima", derived from a bastardization of the name of the Tsuuki class. It was assigned the nanji "月島" meaning "Moon Island" (under the mistaken belief that it was one single island rather than a group of islands). The Tsuukese called Akitsu "Akisu".

The first Brigidnan explorer arrived in 1070's, though due to the distance from the closest colonies no colonization attempts were made at the time. When Brigidnan's began getting closer to colonizing the islands in the 1300's, the chiefs of the islands were warring each other. One in particular, Guafi Inayik (born 1300), realized how effective Brigidnan guns would be in his quest to unify the islands. In 1343 he began trading local wood for Brigidnan weapons. He further recruited a single Brigidnan as a helper to assist. In 1350 he was finally successful at unifying the islands, and declared himself ruler of the entire name of Belau.

Immediately he sought to gain the diplomatic recognition of Lanlania and Florinthus, and began promoting trade with both countries. He also established a uniform legal system and code of ethics, though this was more formalizing long-established traditions into actual law. Upon his death in 1357, his son converted to Sentricism and began modernizing the country by adopting a legal system that more closely resembled one used in Brigidnan nations and reforming land-ownership laws into a system that more closely resembled the Bridignan system.

Shortly after 1380, when the various kingdoms of Akitsu finally opened up and began modernizing, wealthy Akitian merchants began setting up shop in the islands. Plantations were established on the islands and locals recruited as laborers, though when local laborers became scarce laborers were brought in from Akitsu. At first this was a small portion of the Kingdom of Belau's economy, but by 1400 it grew to a very significant portion of it and trade with Akitsu had exploded. Akitian plantations began feeling uneasy with the trading arrangements around this time, and began seeking ways to avoid the tariffs imposed by international trade. When Akitsu unified in December of 1413, the businesses decided to push for annexation into the newly-formed Empire of Akitsu.

---

So yeah. History is the above.

I know several colonial powers were already in the region during this time. What can I expect from others? Would anyone really care enough about those islands to do anything about it?

[Ayzek]

The Holy Lanlanian Empire may have accepted Belau's conversion to Sentricism and consequently been friendly to it, if it was friendly to the Lanlanians and welcomed missionaries and maybe a Holy Lanlanian naval refuel/resupply station. Historically, the Holy Lanlania Empire never colonized further north than its current islands in Southeast Ostara.

Since there's a significant distance between Belau and the empire though, the trade between them wouldn't have mattered much to the empire, especially given Belau's small size. But, as the Sentric state, the empire would have an interest in defending its little Sentric brothers and sisters and hence could possibly intervene to protect them.

I don't feel too strongly about those islands though, so we could come to some sort of understanding. But it'd be too awkward for the Holy Lanlanian Empire to do nothing about a Sentric state being invaded and annexed by non-Sentrics. How about that Akitan conversion?

[Flo]

Florinthus is likely more interested in Jandrea and that business at this time. Trade could probably have happened between Jandrea and Belau certainly but I agree that West Brigidna is likely too far for substantial trade, but maybe some coming through Jandrea could be possible.

I'm not sure Floland would do anything. This may be right around when unification was happening so they may have been a bit busy lol

[Zabuza825]

The Holy Lanlanian Empire may have accepted Belau's conversion to Sentricism and consequently been friendly to it, if it was friendly to the Lanlanians and welcomed missionaries and maybe a Holy Lanlanian naval refuel/resupply station. Historically, the Holy Lanlania Empire never colonized further north than its current islands in Southeast Ostara.

Since there's a significant distance between Belau and the empire though, the trade between them wouldn't have mattered much to the empire, especially given Belau's small size. But, as the Sentric state, the empire would have an interest in defending its little Sentric brothers and sisters and hence could possibly intervene to protect them.

I don't feel too strongly about those islands though, so we could come to some sort of understanding. But it'd be too awkward for the Holy Lanlanian Empire to do nothing about a Sentric state being invaded and annexed by non-Sentrics. How about that Akitan conversion?

They were likely friendly, though whether that friendliness was genuine or not would mostly come down to the question of whether or not you gave them guns back during the wars that unified Belau. Even old super-outdated "we were going to throw them away anyway" guns would be fine as long as they functionally worked, since the locals would've been using weapons far less effective than guns at the time so literally any kind of gun would've given King Guafi Inayik a huge advantage in war.

As for Missionaries, well at least under law there would've had freedom of religion. This would mostly because the King's would have the foresight to know that if they tried to prevent other countries from sending missionaries, it could cause diplomatic issues. So the King would've likely allowed Sentric missionaries in at first (the only reason King Guafi didn't convert would've probably been because polygamy, but his son would've had no qualms and converted and King Guafi would likely allow Sentric missionaries before any others because of that), and then gradually opened up to other missionaries, with the last act being allowing for freedom of religion.

Akitsu would've likely felt very strongly about those islands though, since they would likely see it not only as a way to show of their new modernized powers and expand business interests. That and some Admirals might've seen those islands as a way to try and keep Brigidnan forces out of the seas near Akitsu. But any further east than that, well Akitsu wouldn't know at the time but they would've not gone any further east, instead turning their attention to Ostara proper after Belau. Maybe some agreement with Lanlania could be the reason for that? Not sure how that would work out RP-wise though if the interest is "protecc sentric little brother".

[Ayzek]

The HLE may have agreed to give them guns if they converted.

As for Akitsu, I reckon such an agreement would be a sore point between Akitsu and the HLE? Which would complicate their relationship and make it difficult for them to get along. And if I recall correctly, our states were supposed to get along fairly well. Unless it was a secret treaty between the HLE and Akitsu's ruling class/emperor?

The main issue is the whole "Sentricism in Belau" thing, though. While the HLE wouldn't really want a big war over some tiny backwater, it can't be seen to abandon a Sentric ruler either and certainly not to give concessions to an Ostaran nation. There are a few options around this though.

If Akitsu negotiates with the HLE before invading and gives the HLE something reasonably valuable (for example, Akitsu converting or accepting Sentric missionaries), the HLE could excommunicate Belau's rulers and then have less cause to protect the ruling class when Akitsu invades a short while later (Akitsu would need to wait a bit so the excommunication isn't suspiciously convenient). The HLE could then make a show of intervening, but pull back if Akitsu guaranteed Sentric religious freedom on Belau.

If Akitsu doesn't warn the HLE of its invasion, the HLE would be forced to defend Belau and its ruling class, and Akitsu would need to give the HLE something super valuable so it'd pull back. More than just guaranteeing Sentric religion freedom on Belau. I'm skeptical a promise to not invading more islands would be enough. But if it they came to an understanding, the HLE could possibly accept a Sentric Belau being a sort of vassal to Akitsu. But even that would look kinda bad for the HLE...unless it's an alliance the HLE had ample guarantee of.

Additionally, the HLE may seize some islands east of Belau in response in either case.

[Zabuza825]

The HLE may have agreed to give them guns if they converted.

As for Akitsu, I reckon such an agreement would  be a sore point between Akitsu and the HLE? Which would complicate their relationship and make it difficult for them to get along. And if I recall correctly, our states were supposed to get along fairly well. Unless it was a secret treaty between the HLE and Akitsu's ruling class/emperor?

The main issue is the whole "Sentricism in Belau" thing, though. While the HLE wouldn't really want a big war over some tiny backwater, it can't be seen to abandon a Sentric ruler either and certainly not to give concessions to an Ostaran nation.  There are a few options around this though.

If Akitsu negotiates with the HLE before invading and gives the HLE something reasonably valuable (for example, Akitsu converting or accepting Sentric missionaries), the HLE could excommunicate Belau's rulers and then have less cause to protect the ruling class when Akitsu invades a short while later (Akitsu would need to wait a bit so the excommunication isn't suspiciously convenient). The HLE could then make a show of intervening, but pull back if Akitsu guaranteed Sentric religious freedom on Belau.

If Akitsu doesn't warn the HLE of its invasion, the HLE would be forced to defend Belau and its ruling class, and Akitsu would need to give the HLE something super valuable so it'd pull back. More than just guaranteeing Sentric religion freedom on Belau. I'm skeptical a promise to not invading more islands would be enough. But if it they came to an understanding, the HLE could possibly accept a Sentric Belau being a sort of vassal to Akitsu. But even that would look kinda bad for the HLE...unless it's an alliance the HLE had ample guarantee of.

Additionally, the HLE may seize some islands east of Belau in response in either case.

As I said before, King Guafi Inayik loved his harem too much was too committed to his many wives to want to convert to Sentricism himself, but maybe that could be part of the reason his son converted? The islands exported some wood and other materials to Lanlania and the King's son converted to Sentricism, in exchange for guns?

As for actual taking, well Akitsu wasn't really looking for a long war either, I was modeling this after what happened rl in Hawaii (link) and Akitsu would be hoping for quick, decisive action. That said, if Lanlania has a long record of defending Sentric countries Akitsu could talk to the HLE about it beforehand, mostly because the rulers of Akitsu wouldn't want to start a war with a major Brigidnan power and risk potentially being royally bonerowned immediately after unification.

And as I mentioned on discord, the rulers wouldn't convert at all. But that said, they could agree to change the law and allow religious freedom in Akitsu as part of the agreement, and then allow Sentric missionaries in Akitsu (those Sentric missionaries won't really change the majority religion in Akitsu though).

As for Lanlania taking islands east of Belau, yeah that would likely discourage Akitian expansion further eastward in any case. But Akitsu probably wouldn't do too much to try and stop it unless they felt they were directly threatened.

[Ayzek]

The HLE could possibly accept his son's conversion for guns, if it seemed genuine enough. Mostly so you can have the guns and unify Belau.

The Holy Lanlanian Empire intervening to defend a Sentric state should not come as a surprise to anyone given Sentricism is a big part of its identity. Even if Akitsu seized the islands as quickly as Hawaii fell, it'd be difficult for the HLE to just accept the annexation as a done deal as Belau is still Sentric. Would the Belau government even give up that easily, if it knew the HLE was likely to support it? Especially if there were Lanlanian forces in a local resupply station?

The empire isn't super interested in non-Sentric missionaries being let into Akitsu, btw. Only Sentric ones. So it could and maybe even should keep banning non-Sentric missionaries.

The HLE would probably be convinced to sell out Belau if Akitsu guaranteed Sentricism religious freedom in Belau, accepted Sentric missionaries in Akitsu, and guaranteed to support the HLE in southern Ostara (eg., against Oslanburg). Maybe through a royal marriage?

Anyway, I just wanna make it clear that I don't want Belau and have no problem with AKitsu having it. But the whole "they converted to Sentricism" thing complicates it, given the HLE has an interest in protecting Sentric states.

[Zabuza825]

Regarding the Belauan government surrendering quickly and the comparison to Hawaii, well the reason Queen Lili'uokalani didn't fight back is a lot more complicated than her just "giving up". Her hope was that by going through diplomatic channels, the US would realize that what happened was illegal and support the restoration of the monarchy. She actually had a reason to believe this would happen, as years previously the United Kingdom had invaded and occupied Hawaii over some land disputes involving British citizens and raised the British flag over Hawaii, directly taking over the government. The occupation was ended after diplomatic protestations directly to London from King Kamehameha III (see the Paulet Affair for more details).

Belau doesn't have this precedent, so they probably wouldn't give up so easily. I'm just not sure how keen the King would be to fight a war when he knows that his military on it's own wouldn't be able to do anything and that he'd need to wait for foreign intervention to even stand a chance. He'd probably de facto not fight to avoid unnecessary deaths, but not surrender de jure and instead ask for foreign intervention to try and prevent it.

But regarding Lanlania's stuff:

• Guaranteeing Sentric religious freedom in Belau - okay, acceptable.
  
• Accepting Sentric missionaries in Akitsu - could be acceptable, though again the government would probably quickly make a law allowing for freedom of religion and allowing other missionaries. Also don't expect to displace Reido as the dominant religion of Akitsu.
  
• Support HLE in southern Ostara - if it's a mutual alliance, than sure! Akitsu would be worried about Oslanburg since Oslan would have expanded pretty close to Akitsu's borders when the took Singan. If it's a mutual thing, Akitsu would likely see it as a win-win.
  
• Maybe through Royal Marriage? - maaaaaaybe, but don't expect to have an heir to Akitsu's throne born from this
  

And yeah I know you have no problem with it OOC'ly, but as for the rp side this is why it's interesting. XD

[Ayzek]

Belau. HLE forces on the island make a show intervention, just patrolling sentric-majority parts of the island. This would've been agreed upon with akitsu earlier and have been just to show that the entire thing had been with holy lanlanian assent.
- the hle and akitsu publically sign/announce their alliance and hle forces stops their patrols of sentric belau and return to their ships.
- the HLE seizes islands east of Belau.
- hle forces withdraw from belau.