NETO Discussion Thread

[Ceausescu]

I've made a map outlining the points of interest in Wadiyah:



The red part is the "west", with green Silistria at the bottom, while the blue area is the "east". The biggest problem is all the yellow areas, cuz that's where the oil is and that's what everybody wants to control.

A two-state solution could work, as a mid-term answer to the problem. However, if the split is made strictly on ethnic lines, Carpathia wouldn't be very happy about it, as all the oil would end up in the hands of the easterners, who wouldn't sell to NETO or Carpathia if hell froze over and said oil would likely end up on the market of some tinpot state like Svarna Surya, or Ishnalla. However, if the split is done in such a way to put the oil under the control of the west, the east wouldn't like that at all and the two states would inevitably descend into a cycle of war and terrorism (though it would be easier to just control the west + oil regions, than all of Wadiyah).

If NETO just backs off and decides to stop getting involved, letting Wadiyah collapse into another civil war, it is likely that foreign states like Carpathia, Angiris, the HLE, or even Nyland, would step in. Or even a coalition made up of all of these states. And NETO would be left out of Wadiyah for good.

Backing either faction for the control of all of Wadiyah, would result in a prolonged civil conflict, although not on the scale of the previous civil war, due to NETO occupation. It would be a low-level insurgency characterized by terrorist activity which would, however, cripple any attempts at reconstruction and thus, access to that juicy, juicy oil.

Attempting to install a completely new government, or simply the annexation of Wadiyah, would also result in a prolonged insurgency, this time on a much bigger scale and likely with a ton of international condemnations and possibly sanctions.

[Jamzor the Jaxxor]

I would suggest we back the Al-Fayeed government, as was the plan originally. We can try to force negotiations, but we want to make sure Al-Fayeed stays in charge of the central government (or if he proves too difficult, perhaps one of his deputies would be interested in the job...).

We need to also decide how many troops NETO already has in-country at the time of the presidential election and subsequent shitstorm.

[Ceausescu]

This might work, as well. If Wadiyah gets split something like this, as shown by that white line, while every side would grumble about it, it might just work enough that it would prevent major violence, since everyone would be getting some oil. Eastern Wadiyah would keep giving the evil eye to NETO, but it could sell some of that oil to NETO states which have Akhadic religious law (sorry, Kyrzbekistan), but the others could just as easily buy from Western Wadiyah. It would also keep Carpathia (and therefore, the Silistrians) quiet, although they wouldn't necessarily like this solution (still, Carpathia would very much prefer it to another war). Not sure how much Carpathia's opinion counts, but Carpathia's interests in this are only that Silistria remain autonomous and do not be put under religious law and that Wadiyah remains stable enough so that oil prices wouldn't rise again. As long as these two conditions are met, Carpathia has no desire to waste resources on more involvement.

[Jamzor the Jaxxor]

I suppose we can assume this is the deal that has/will be/would have been hammered out during negotiations between the two sides?

So then it will come to a vote, I suppose. Do we accept the the two-state solution as is, try to negotiate different borders, try to negotiate a one-state solution, or try to just steamroll the easterners with brute force?

Carp: Would the east accept some sort of autonomous status with the internal autonomous region being along the same or similar border as the proposed one? Or perhaps with the whole ethnic east except the capital, and a separate deal concerning oil sales? For example, the central government would have control over where the oil is sold, but shares the profits with the east?

[Ceausescu]

Carp: Would the east accept some sort of autonomous status with the internal autonomous region being along the same or similar border as the proposed one? Or perhaps with the whole ethnic east except the capital, and a separate deal concerning oil sales? For example, the central government would have control over where the oil is sold, but shares the profits with the east?

Sadly, no, as the east already has that autonomous status (which is what made it so hard for Al-Fayeed to control military recruitment in the area and why his government has so little control over the place). To them, they'd still feel that they're being ruled by western colonial infidels. The only way the east would accept a one-state solution, is if they get to run the national government and have their religious laws. This, however, would piss off the west, who would never accept religious law on a national level and would never conform with their autonomy being dismantled. It would also result in Silistria declaring independence, citing a violation of its autonomy as the reason. And it would have Carpathia's backing.

[Hadash]

I don't know about other NETO members, but Kyrzbekistan isn't really interested in controling the oil, as much as providing stability and security in the country and region. It's not that making Carpathia happy is a priority either. It may not be what we say in public, of course, but that's Kyrzbekistan's policy.

A two-state solution would require negotiations anyway, as it doesn't seem that every side has a much clear control of most of the disputed areas, or even the capital city right now. So it would be better to start contacts with both sides, while trying to avoid that violence starts and spreads around the country. Kyrzbekistan may propose personally some kind of non-presidential federal system, maybe, in which no side is able to fully dominate the other side. But if all sides agree suddenly to a division of the country then it can be done I suppose.

[Eminence]

Alright, so we can assume now that decision to redeploy to Wadiyah has been approved by the Council.

Perhaps our next order of business can be to discuss what steps need to be taken to allow A'sir to join fully?

A'sir has been a full member for some time - I suppose it has just been through a failure of communication that this has not been heard by everybody.

[Eminence]

Ga'bath would support a more hard-line answer to this crisis. Ga'bath will not support a two-state solution at all, it advocates for the status quo. It will maintain the level of autonomy in Sillistria while providing NETO protections to them, as for the East, Ga'bath would advocate a full scale re-deployment of NETO forces there before armed resistance can organize.

[Jamzor the Jaxxor]

The best way to defeat an insurgency is to pull no punches.

[Eminence]

What are your thoughts guys, on how we should conduct this deployment?