Svobodna Dnevnik

[Hadash]

El Correo Internacional

---

---

Keszarian voters to elect new president, in the middle of political uncertainty
By: Mauricio Kovács-Tomillo
Published: Alvan 1579


Keszarians voting

---

Köszövár, Keszarian Republic | The first round of the fifth presidential elections in Keszaria since the transition to democracy failed to show a clear winner. The second round run-off will see the Keszarian voters deciding between CDU-PDS candidate and former president Álmos Vaszary and current Vice President Géza Békésy as the new president of the Keszarian Republic.

The electoral campaign was focused on domestic policy, as the Keszarian economy continues to struggle to reduce the negative growth (-0.8% in last semester), and the government implementing an unpopular economic austerity program of reduction of national debt and social cuts. Àlmos Vaszary received the 36.1% of the vote, while Géza Békésy received 31.8% of the vote. Istzám Esterházy, the leader of the nationalist and controversial National People's Party was third with 18.8%, quite below their expectations at the beginning of the electoral campaign, when the NPP was second approaching the CDU-PDS in most polls.

Álmos Vaszary hopes to be the first Keszarian president to be elected twice as president (the Keszarian constitution does not allow a second term for incumbent presidents and vice presidents, although it does not establish a limit of not consecutive terms). CDU-PDS has leading the polls since 1575, leading the opposition although supporting the loan program and some key austerity measures. Vaszary has been very critical how Dohnányi-Persbrandt's administration has led the government, declaring that the government failure to react properly and quick enough worsened the economic crisis and financial situation of the Keszarian state.

He will not face the government candidate anymore, however, but a former colleague and collaborator. Géza Békésy was actually a member of the CDU-PDS only a year ago, but he left the party after he was defected by Vaszary in the contest for the leadership of the party, claiming "important and irreconciliable differences...on key policies". He started his political career in the Messanic Democratic Party, but he soon left the center-right political party and joined the centrist CDU-PDS. He was serving as elected mayor in his native town, Hidegkutös, when President Zsoltán Barényi appointed him as Minister of Public Works and Transport. During Álmos Vaszary presidency he served for five years as Minister of Internal Affairs, and he was elected Vice President in the 1574 even while the CDU-PDS candidate for president suffered a clear defeat against Freedom Party candidate Nándor Dohnányi-Persbrandt. Békésy and Vaszary were said to have a "complicated relationship but good understanding", but those bridges seem broken since a long time ago. As Vice President, Békésy restricted himself as a dissenting voice in foreign policy and cultural issues, being often more critical against the Carpathian policy toward Keszaria than the national cabinet, and contradicting even his own party official policies. Békésy, who is running as an independent candidate, has promised that his government will be a competent government formed by independent and capable ministers, and he has suggested he will try to renegotiate the financial loan with the Lanlanian government, in order to make possible a more sustainable economic growth.

If Békésy defeats his former boss, however, he will become the first president to win a presidential elections without the support of one of the main political parties. A proof that Keszarian politics are dynamic and voters are demanding, some say, while a sign that the people is tiring of the establishment parties lack to offer a real political change, other claim. In either case, it is a paradox that shows the limits of Dohnányi-Persbrandt's presidency, who started his political career after being elected Vice President as an idnependent candidate. Although it is true that Dohnányi-Persbrandt and Békésy comes from two different worlds (the former a successful businessman from a wealthy background, the latter a professional career politician from a middle-class family), and while Dohnányi-Persbrandt had some remarkable achievements, specially on foreign policy and tax reform, he failed to create a successful political movement which continues his legacy. The Freedom Party, which he founded before the 1570 legislative elections did, was never able to defeat the CDU-PDS in votes, and it did poorly in the last legislative elections, when it was clearly overcome by the right-wing populist National People's Party. Freedom Party candidate for President, the unpopular Finance Minister László Simonyi, only obtained 10.8% of the vote, ending behind Ákos Négyesy, the Communist Party candidate.

The election within the elections

Unlike most presidential republics, the President and the Vice President are elected directly by voters at the same time but in different ballots. This may sound eccentric and dysfuntional by most foreigners, although it has a clear political and historical reason. As during the transition to democracy, neither General Zoltán Bathory, the last Premier of the Keszarian Republic, nor the democratic opposition trusted each other completely, and although there was agreement in the roundtables negotiations between government and opposition toward a presidential system they were afraid of either losing all the power or or lacking check and balances in case of electoral defeat. It did not matter much, as the Messanic Democratic Party won by landslide both elections in 1559, consolidating its power and the transition to democracy with another victory in the legislative elections the next year. But since them, despite the calls to reform the election of the Vice President, no ammend of the constitution has be done since then.

Critics of this system claim that it tends to turn the office of the Vice President, constitutionally an important one even if secondary in the practice, into a protest vote. Indeed, since 1564 every Vice President has been from a political affiliation different than the President of the Republic, and very often than the government as well. This often leads that Vice Presidents tend use to the office of vice president as a platform to launch their for the leadership of their own parties, damaging the fairness of intra-party electoral contests, or even to create their own political parties, as Nándor Dohnányi-Persbrandt's Freedom Party.

Only six weeks ago, it was expected a comfortable victory for Katalin Kárpáti, the General Secretary of the CDU-PDS, who has been the Speaker of the CDU-PDS parliamentary group since 1575. Kárpáti, who attempted to gain the nomination as candidate to President first, supported Vaszary against Békésy in the last round of vote in the CDU-PDS primaries. Kárpáti obtained 39.1% of the vote, even more than her party leader -although it is also true that she faced a reduced number of candidates-, and if she is elected Vice President -she is only 45 years old- is expected to become next CDU-PDS leader and first Keszarian women President in history, according to supporters and analysts.

She was expected to face Tokár Orbán, Freedom Party candidate and Foreign Minister since 1575. Orbán was a former member of the Messianic Democratic Party, serving as Deputy Foreign Minister from 1562 and 1564, and he was one of the few remaining members of the Dohnányi-Persbrandt administration with a political background, as after the last government reshuffles, the national cabinet was mostly composed by considered technocrats such as Finance Minister Lászlo Simonyi. However, although the Foreign Minister -the member of the cabinet with the highest approval rating- was always below the 30% in most poll, he had a poor intervention in the last TV debate, and he has seen himself excluded from the run-off against Kárpáti, after being overcome by the National People's Party candidate, Gyöngy Székély, by 20.8% against 22.1%, respectively.

Székély, 44, a lawyer, started her political career in 1571, when she was elected to the Senate as a National People's Party candidate. Before that date, it is not known if she was ever involved in any kind of political activity or affiliation. She would be reelected in 1575, winning by 54% of the vote in her electoral district in the first round, the highest ever for a National People's Party candidate. During her time as Senator, she was dedicated mostly to cultural and education issues.

Székély's style and rhetoric can't be more different than many of her party colleagues, as she seems to remain calm and didactic even in the most heated political discussion, even if the content is not much that different in substance. Her rise in politics was slower than her political party, but that participant but spirited style, had led to rise in popularity above some of her male colleagues, not as much as National People's Party leader Isztám Esterházy, but with a less polarizing image, as Esterházy is as much hated by his opponents as loved by his own supporters.

The National People's Party, founded in the early 1560s, has already secured itself as the only successful openly nationalist political movement since the transition to democracy. The NPP entered in the National Assembly for first time in 1570, on the basis of an anti-immigrant and pro-welfare political program, and it has increased constantly their number of votes and representatives, specially since the start of the financial crisis a few years ago. In the last legislative elections, the National People's Party obtained 28.8% of the vote and 93 seats, becoming the second largest political party after the CDU-PDS. Although in the latter months, the party has bogged down in most polls, competing for the protest vote with the Communist Party and the reawaken Social Democratic Party.

The party describes itself as "a principled and patriotic party...focused in the protection of Keszarian values and interests". Although the NPP has tried to modernize in recent years, trying to polish their ethno-nationalism and anti-elistist populist rhetoric in order to attract more voters, it is largely considered an anti-establishment political party lacking a serious program of government, often being labelled as "ultra-nationalist" or "far-right", even if National People's Party rather defines itself as "radical right-wing" or "national democratic". The NPP is also noted abroad for their support to Keszarian ethnic minorities and their call toward the revision of the "Treaty of Chisinau", although since 1576 the party has rather focused in the opposition to austerity policies and the privatization program started by Finance Minister Simonyi.

While the election of the first Keszarian woman Vice President will be likely seen as an anecdote, as it won't have much importance on government policy, it is likely to be understood internally about in which direction the country is likely to move in the coming years.