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[Aerandariel]

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6 TOLVEN, 1582

DECISION '82: Democrats come off big winners
Democrats lead the field with 20 seats, with Republicans and Orthodox Conservatives tied for second with 19 each

CATHEDRIUM - Despite all six major parties failing to reach the magic 40 seats needed for a majority in the Senate, the balance of power has still shifted dramatically from the fringes to a more centrist point of view.

In the aftermath of Election Day, the Democratic Party stands atop the leaderboard with 20 seats, eight better than their still impressive showing two years ago. The Orthodox Conservative Party surged to a very strong second-place tie with the Republican Party, each getting 19 seats. For the Orthodox Conservatives it was a good night, adding five seats to their totals from two years ago while the once-dominant Republicans - possessors of 29 seats two years ago - dropped a whopping 10 seats in an apparent rejection of their manifesto. The Conservative Party fell to fourth place with 15 seats, but still managed to be on the plus side by gaining one seat. The Federalist Party came in fifth after dropping two seats, falling to 3 on the night (all 3 in Xiansai). The Communist Party, still struggling to gain traction across the board, was the only party not to gain or lose a seat after holding on to their one chair in Sorcae. Independent candidates for the second straight election did not win a single seat.

The clear winners of this night are the Democrats and Orthodox Conservatives, who now each possess their own mandate. The Democrats, after leading in the polls for months, cashed in on their success and came up with the most seats but only by a slim margin. The Orthodox Conservatives made good on their promise to be a "stronger opposition party" than the mainstream Conservatives and took some seats away from their parent party to tie for second. The Conservatives gained a seat from the Republicans, but they still failed to retain their status as the main opposition party to the government and now seem to have to settle for second billing on the opposition side. But it is clear that the ruling Republicans took the worst beating of the night. Dropping ten seats - many of them to Democrats - has done two things: 1) it signaled a rejection of the ruling party's agenda and also a rejection of the idea of two dominant parties over three or four weaker ones and 2) the loss of so many seats puts Chancellor Aerandariel Apotecarius's agenda in some measure of jeopardy.

What comes of this will be yet another coalition in the Senate, but this time the path to a coalition is all too clear: the Democrats - with 20 seats - have to come to an agreement with either the Republicans (the likelier of the two) or the Orthodox Conservatives (the unlikelier of the two) who each possess 19 seats. That puts them 1 away from a majority, which then presents two options. The first one would to be bring aboard the three remaining Federalists, which would put the coalition over the top with 42 seats. But if that didn't work, then the second option would be to try to bring aboard the lone Communist in the Senate. Doing that gets the coalition right to 40 seats and enough for a majority. Either way, the possible coalition would still be a bit leftist, which could turn off some Democrats and like-minded Republicans. What could be possible is that a coalition develops that leaves out the Democrats entirely, though that would be difficult to manage. One scenario has the 19 Republicans getting together with the 15 Conservatives to cobble together 34 seats, then add on the 3 Federalists for 37 seats, the lone Communist to push it to 38, and then two or three turncoat Orthodox Conservatives to push the coalition over the top. Another scenario has the Orthodox Conservatives, Conservatives (who again make up 34 seats), Federalists (bumping numbers up to 37), and three turncoat Republicans to get them over the top.

The greatest consequence of this election however remains that the administration of Chancellor Aerandariel Apotecarius now potentially faces a hostile Senate, especially on issues where Democrats may be more to the right of a seemingly left-leaning Chancellor. It is important to keep in mind that the Chancellor didn't start off as a left-leaning Republican; he was much more along the lines of Democratic thinking when he first assumed office. As time passed though, Mr Apotecarius moved to the left slightly and began towing the Republican line. That apparently backfired on him, as the election results clearly showed. One thing is certain, the Democrats will likely exert pressure on Mr Apotecarius to install more Democrats into the Imperial administration and alter his agenda in the hopes of as few fights as possible.