The Hunt for the Black Swan

[Nentsia]

Nykoping – Nyland
‘’Our current estimate is that we are basically blind and deaf, and we are in no position to effectively contain the threats that exist at the moment, and those in the future…’’

Niklas Westerberg, otherwise known as ‘W’, listened attentively to the briefing of one of his senior analysts at a preparatory meeting of the Federal Security Department’s 4th Section. What the analyst unfolded in front of his wrinkled eyes was the scenario he had long expected, and feared. He kept listening carefully, but he already realized he was not going to look good in next week’s meeting on policy and planning with the other section heads of the agency. Protecting Nyland was becoming in increasingly complex business, and the 4th Section barely knew what was going on beneath the surface.

Anders Clausen, a liaison officer from the 5th Section, wasn’t exactly helping either. Although as a liaison officer he was supposed to be something of a coordinator, a messenger and a mediator, he rather tended to act as the 5th Section’s lobbyist. He shared little details of their work and operations, even though it was so fundamentally intertwined with that of Section IV. The 5th investigated political extremism and subversion in Nyland, while Westerberg presided over the FSD’s counter-terrorism unit.

‘’To conclude’’, Westerberg said as he looked at his staff one by one, ‘’we know that the actual terrorist threat is rising, both from existing radicalized elements and from a proliferation of radicalizing individuals over the past year. But we lack manpower, budget, capacity, to effectively keep up with the trend. An ever widening gap exists between our capacity to monitor and investigate threats, and the number of targets. Most worryingly, it has gotten to the point that we don’t even know anymore what don’t know. Our sight on what is going on is blurring.’’

Everyone in the room nodded. Gina Thorn, a senior officer who handled the most delicate infiltration operations within the section, laid down her glasses on the table – an indication she was about to give her unsalted opinion. ‘’If I may be frank’’, she began with a childish high-pitched voice that did not quite fit with a mature woman, ‘’we’ve been dragging our feet for far too long.’’

‘’What do you mean, Gina’’, Westerberg asked as he raised his eyebrows.

‘’The politicians don’t give one shit about us or our work, because nothing has happened.. Yet. The public has no idea. The media – they have frightened everyone within this entire organization. Everyone fears bad press. If we do nothing, we becoming passive bureaucrats sitting at their desks waiting for a terrorist attack of unprecedented scale to happen.’’

‘’Come forward with a proposal, Gina.’’ Westerberg interrupted her rant. Gina paused for a moment and looked at everyone before she continued.

‘’We need a comeback. We need a campaign, of several operations, to restore our information position, and we have to get over our fear of failure or attracting bad press. If we do not know where the terrorists of tomorrow are, we could start by letting them come to us.’’

Westerberg suspected he had an idea of what Gina was aiming for. But he also knew that was potentially costly, complex to execute, and the consequences of such an operation could potentially be very damaging to everyone involved, including the country as a whole.

‘’We create our own terrorist network. We’re gonna get out there, and see what flies are attracted the pile of crap we leave for them. We could set up online radical forums, blogs, video’s. We could establish religious ‘’study groups’’ in the neighbourhoods and make them appear a little edgy, see what figures come to attend. See whether they try to influence such groups, and in what direction they try to pull. And we could establish activist circles, cultural organizations that sympathize with the suspect countries in this world… We could do a lot to lure radical figures towards us.’’

Westerberg listened carefully. He agreed with Gina, but she was speaking as an intelligence officer – one that was getting creative as he always demanded. But Westerberg was an executive, and he had to deal with the rest of the organization. He doubted whether they’d be willing to give him that much room to operate. In fact, the kind of operations that Gina proposed would probably require formal presidential approval – but that was for the legal advisers to sort out if it even came that far.

Westerberg stated his doubts but Gina seemed determined to get the 4th Section slam with its fist on the table for once. ‘’To hell with the other section heads!’’

Westerberg promised her to bring up the proposal if she delivered him a written draft of her plans and the possibilities she saw. After the meeting however, when the 5th Section’s liaison had left the room, Gina came to Westerberg to talk in private. ‘’You know… I know this is drastic, but with some parts of the plan we could easily go ahead without informing or asking anyone from the organization. They can’t disapprove of what they don’t know.’’ Gina suggested with a stern face. Westerberg was perplexed.

‘’Give it a thought.’’ Gina added and she headed back to her office – which was one of the most highly secured locations within the FSD’s headquarters. Westerberg had little stomach for Gina’s appetite for intrigue and conspiracy. But as always, he kept an open mind and stored her suggestions as yet another option available to him. His only goal was to get the CT section back on top of matter, before people would get hurt.

At the end of that day, Westerberg wished his staff a good weekend and left the building. His driver was already waiting with the car, and opened the door for him. But as Westerberg stepped into the car, he turned pale. On the radio, the news was told that an ‘unknown middle-aged man had been shot by the police after waving a knife in public and wounding three people’. The police could not say whether the motives of the man were terroristic, and that his house was being searched. It has begun, he thought to himself. Would this be the first of many similar and more serious incidents to come?

[Nentsia]

Niklas Westerberg had spent that evening and night at the Nykoping Police headquarters. So much for a weekend. The so-called Police Intelligence Service kept him informed on the developments in the stabbing case earlier that day. Police units were searching the target’s home, questioning his relatives and going through his electronic devices, such as his phone and computers.

Westerberg spent the entire evening in a secure back chamber where police intelligence units discussed sensitive matters. There was a large table in the middle, so that all those who were present could take notes. At the back end of the room, several monitors hanging against the wall displayed relevant information. Some displayed news channels, which were still speculating whether the stabbing incident had been a terrorist attack. Others showed photos taken inside the man’s home by police detectives. Recorded CCTV footage was on display at another screen. There were also live connections with policymakers.

At moments like these, the Federal Security Department was utterly useless, and Westerberg deeply felt that. Instead of being of any use to anyone, they largely depended on the work of police officers in the field to help them out. Nothing blurred the lines between the various security organizations in a country like a terrorist threat. In order to still offer any kind of help however, Westerberg had brought Peter Hellström with him, who was in charge of the FSD’s cyber unit, which might crack any encrypted data found on the target’s hard drive. Gina Thorn was there as well. Among the CT section’s staff, she had by far the most contacts with the Nylander police agencies.

Most of the time that evening was spent waiting at the coffee machine while staring at the tv screens and sharing speculative thoughts. ‘’Is this what we’re up to?’’, Westerberg cynically asked as he put the sixth cup of coffee of that evening to his lips. Gina nodded. ‘’These are the ones we cannot ever prevent, but they also do the least damage.’’ A chill ran through Westerberg’s body as he took in that factual reality.

A police intelligence officer then came towards them. ‘’Any news?’’ Westerberg asked. The policeman nodded. ‘’Our target’s medical file says he was seeing a psychiatrist recently. A so-called Dr. Martin Krafth…’’

‘’Im going to pick him up.’’ Gina interrupted the man before he could even finish. She was aching to do something, and especially to get out of the crisis room where she could do nothing but wait. Her very nature was oriented towards undertaking action, to move forward, and to always seek the initiative. Westerberg admired her, but he also saw that it could be her weakness, and that someone sometimes needed to slow her down.

Before Westerberg could decide whether he’d come along with her, he received a call on his secure cell phone. It was a call by Emelie Grahn, Westerberg’s deputy as head of CT section. ‘’Yes?’’ Westerberg said.

‘’Sir, official message from Kyrzbekistani intelligence came in. One of their targets is on his way to Nyland and they want to warn us. We need you here to take the decisions on how we’re going to handle this.’’

‘’I’m on my way.’’ Westerberg briefly let the message sink. What on earth was going on?

Westerberg and Gina’s roads separated there, as she went to see the psychiatrist while he headed back to the office to hear about the latest developments and take the appropriate measures.

Once he was back at the FSD’s headquarters, Westerberg headed straight to the secure backroom where his deputy Grahn was waiting for him. A few senior counter-terrorist analysts then joined them. ‘’So what’s the big news?’’

‘’We have received a memo from the Kyrzbeks that a certain Zamembek Almasur is on his way to Nyland. He will arrive in three hours, approximately, at the Nykoping International Airport. The Kyrzbeks told us he is one of their surveillance targets in a CT op. They have no concrete knowledge of what he is going to do or why he is going to Nyland, but they warn us that he could be potentially dangerous…’’

Westerberg leaned on the table for a moment and looked at his staff one by one. ‘’Is that all they told?’’

Grahn nodded. ‘’To protect ongoing Kyrzbekistani CT operations, this is all they can share with us. He could be anything ranging from a low-level courier or recruiter to being on a suicide mission. But I think it leaves us a wonderful opportunity to start up an intensive surveillance operation and it might even lead us to some unidentified members of radical networks.’’

Westerberg had to agree on that. Even though now was not exactly the right time to welcome potential foreign terrorists into Nyland, it did present a unique opportunity to gain a better view on the terror networks inside Nyland. ‘’Get our legal advisor into the meeting. We’re going to set up the surveillance we need on this guy. Not a word to the airport security or customs. We don’t want them to accidentally alarm the target.’’