OOC: Akitsu Expansion into Belau

[Ayzek]

The HLE may have agreed to give them guns if they converted.

As for Akitsu, I reckon such an agreement would be a sore point between Akitsu and the HLE? Which would complicate their relationship and make it difficult for them to get along. And if I recall correctly, our states were supposed to get along fairly well. Unless it was a secret treaty between the HLE and Akitsu's ruling class/emperor?

The main issue is the whole "Sentricism in Belau" thing, though. While the HLE wouldn't really want a big war over some tiny backwater, it can't be seen to abandon a Sentric ruler either and certainly not to give concessions to an Ostaran nation. There are a few options around this though.

If Akitsu negotiates with the HLE before invading and gives the HLE something reasonably valuable (for example, Akitsu converting or accepting Sentric missionaries), the HLE could excommunicate Belau's rulers and then have less cause to protect the ruling class when Akitsu invades a short while later (Akitsu would need to wait a bit so the excommunication isn't suspiciously convenient). The HLE could then make a show of intervening, but pull back if Akitsu guaranteed Sentric religious freedom on Belau.

If Akitsu doesn't warn the HLE of its invasion, the HLE would be forced to defend Belau and its ruling class, and Akitsu would need to give the HLE something super valuable so it'd pull back. More than just guaranteeing Sentric religion freedom on Belau. I'm skeptical a promise to not invading more islands would be enough. But if it they came to an understanding, the HLE could possibly accept a Sentric Belau being a sort of vassal to Akitsu. But even that would look kinda bad for the HLE...unless it's an alliance the HLE had ample guarantee of.

Additionally, the HLE may seize some islands east of Belau in response in either case.