The Hunt for the Black Swan

[Nentsia]

Nykoping – Nyland
‘’Our current estimate is that we are basically blind and deaf, and we are in no position to effectively contain the threats that exist at the moment, and those in the future…’’

Niklas Westerberg, otherwise known as ‘W’, listened attentively to the briefing of one of his senior analysts at a preparatory meeting of the Federal Security Department’s 4th Section. What the analyst unfolded in front of his wrinkled eyes was the scenario he had long expected, and feared. He kept listening carefully, but he already realized he was not going to look good in next week’s meeting on policy and planning with the other section heads of the agency. Protecting Nyland was becoming in increasingly complex business, and the 4th Section barely knew what was going on beneath the surface.

Anders Clausen, a liaison officer from the 5th Section, wasn’t exactly helping either. Although as a liaison officer he was supposed to be something of a coordinator, a messenger and a mediator, he rather tended to act as the 5th Section’s lobbyist. He shared little details of their work and operations, even though it was so fundamentally intertwined with that of Section IV. The 5th investigated political extremism and subversion in Nyland, while Westerberg presided over the FSD’s counter-terrorism unit.

‘’To conclude’’, Westerberg said as he looked at his staff one by one, ‘’we know that the actual terrorist threat is rising, both from existing radicalized elements and from a proliferation of radicalizing individuals over the past year. But we lack manpower, budget, capacity, to effectively keep up with the trend. An ever widening gap exists between our capacity to monitor and investigate threats, and the number of targets. Most worryingly, it has gotten to the point that we don’t even know anymore what don’t know. Our sight on what is going on is blurring.’’

Everyone in the room nodded. Gina Thorn, a senior officer who handled the most delicate infiltration operations within the section, laid down her glasses on the table – an indication she was about to give her unsalted opinion. ‘’If I may be frank’’, she began with a childish high-pitched voice that did not quite fit with a mature woman, ‘’we’ve been dragging our feet for far too long.’’

‘’What do you mean, Gina’’, Westerberg asked as he raised his eyebrows.

‘’The politicians don’t give one shit about us or our work, because nothing has happened.. Yet. The public has no idea. The media – they have frightened everyone within this entire organization. Everyone fears bad press. If we do nothing, we becoming passive bureaucrats sitting at their desks waiting for a terrorist attack of unprecedented scale to happen.’’

‘’Come forward with a proposal, Gina.’’ Westerberg interrupted her rant. Gina paused for a moment and looked at everyone before she continued.

‘’We need a comeback. We need a campaign, of several operations, to restore our information position, and we have to get over our fear of failure or attracting bad press. If we do not know where the terrorists of tomorrow are, we could start by letting them come to us.’’

Westerberg suspected he had an idea of what Gina was aiming for. But he also knew that was potentially costly, complex to execute, and the consequences of such an operation could potentially be very damaging to everyone involved, including the country as a whole.

‘’We create our own terrorist network. We’re gonna get out there, and see what flies are attracted the pile of crap we leave for them. We could set up online radical forums, blogs, video’s. We could establish religious ‘’study groups’’ in the neighbourhoods and make them appear a little edgy, see what figures come to attend. See whether they try to influence such groups, and in what direction they try to pull. And we could establish activist circles, cultural organizations that sympathize with the suspect countries in this world… We could do a lot to lure radical figures towards us.’’

Westerberg listened carefully. He agreed with Gina, but she was speaking as an intelligence officer – one that was getting creative as he always demanded. But Westerberg was an executive, and he had to deal with the rest of the organization. He doubted whether they’d be willing to give him that much room to operate. In fact, the kind of operations that Gina proposed would probably require formal presidential approval – but that was for the legal advisers to sort out if it even came that far.

Westerberg stated his doubts but Gina seemed determined to get the 4th Section slam with its fist on the table for once. ‘’To hell with the other section heads!’’

Westerberg promised her to bring up the proposal if she delivered him a written draft of her plans and the possibilities she saw. After the meeting however, when the 5th Section’s liaison had left the room, Gina came to Westerberg to talk in private. ‘’You know… I know this is drastic, but with some parts of the plan we could easily go ahead without informing or asking anyone from the organization. They can’t disapprove of what they don’t know.’’ Gina suggested with a stern face. Westerberg was perplexed.

‘’Give it a thought.’’ Gina added and she headed back to her office – which was one of the most highly secured locations within the FSD’s headquarters. Westerberg had little stomach for Gina’s appetite for intrigue and conspiracy. But as always, he kept an open mind and stored her suggestions as yet another option available to him. His only goal was to get the CT section back on top of matter, before people would get hurt.

At the end of that day, Westerberg wished his staff a good weekend and left the building. His driver was already waiting with the car, and opened the door for him. But as Westerberg stepped into the car, he turned pale. On the radio, the news was told that an ‘unknown middle-aged man had been shot by the police after waving a knife in public and wounding three people’. The police could not say whether the motives of the man were terroristic, and that his house was being searched. It has begun, he thought to himself. Would this be the first of many similar and more serious incidents to come?