Svobodna Dnevnik

[Hadash]

El Correo Internacional

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General Bronislav Grazrod wins first round of Mordvanian presidential elections
By: Elena Manstein
Published: Marth 10, 1584


Grazrod will face former Prime Minister Zvezdana Serebryak in the runoff.

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Bronislav Grazrod, a retired general of Mordvanian Republican Armed Forces, was the most voted candidate in Republic of Mordvania's first presidential elections, which would require a runoff, to be hold on Marth 28. Grazrod, was one of the longest-serving members of the powerful Council of Defense, being appointed of Dosa 1566, during the first months of the Mordvanian Civil War, and remained a member until 1582, when he resigned.

Grazrod, 60, who run as an independent candidate, obtained 29,4% of the vote, around sixteen million of voters, a remarkable result considering he had not the direct support of any of the political parties with representation in the Mordvanian parliament. If he is elected, he will replace the Chairman of the Council of Defense Bozidar Strnad as head of state of the Republic of Mordvania. Strnad, who was appointed in that position during the Mordvanian republican revolution, has remained in power for 18 years. Although the single six year term established by the Constitutional reform of 1582, which created the office of President of the Republic, technically did allow him to be elected president and remain head of state for another six years, Strnad, 53, decided not to run as candidate.

Bronislav Grazrod, who lacks any previous political experience, has run an austere campaign without much promises and detailed policies beyond national security, defense, and foreign policy, where he has promised to strengthen Mordvanian interest in the region and the world, but which are felt, with only a few exceptions, as a continuation of Mordvanian official foreign policy in the last five years. Grazrod has promised that he is not interested to create his own political movement, and that he aims to cooperate with the current coalition government and the political parties.

Another military officer, Admiral Gintaras Baravykas, Vice-Chairman of the Council of Defense since 1566, was considered the incumbent candidate. Although Baravykas was originally a sympathizer of the left-wing Radical Party, he was considered the right-hand of Chairman Bozidar Strnad, and one of the influential and powerful leaders of the country. Strnad, although he did not personally endorsed Baravykas, did not hide his preference for Baravykas as his successor, praising several times his preparation, toughness, leadership, loyalty, and competence before and during the presidential campaign.

Along Grazrod, Baravykas was the main favourite to become the first President of the Republic of Mordvania, and most polls of the last two months gave Baravykas a comfortable second position, enough at least to go to the second round. However, he could only be third, receiving 18.4% of the vote, merely 427,751 votes behind the second place. A disappointing result for Baravykas, which although he was declining in the polls during the last two weeks of the presidential campaign, he hoped to even reduce the difference with Gazrod. Although running as an independent candidate, with a political platform which was mostly a continuation to the policies of Chairman Bozidar Strnad, Baravykas had been endorsed by the Republican Social Radical Party, a left-republican currently second in the polls behid the ruling center-right Mordvanian Republican Party. Although Baravykas was one of the most popular military officers from the 1566 Mordvanian revolution only behind Bozidar Strnad himself, this was not enough and likely to be understood that many voters -specially the youngest ones- are not exactly moved for events that happened more than twenty years ago and are more inclined to be motivated for more practical issues. Baravykas' ethnicity -a member of the Bunesgan ethnic group, about 11% of the country population- could be another secondary decisive factor, some analysts believe, although sectarian or identity issues were mostly absent during the campaign (excluding a few of minor Mordvanian nationalist candidates who received a marginal support). Although Baravykas' campaign team remained silent during hours, he finally recognized his defeat a few minutes before the official announcement of the electoral commission about the final result was made. Baravykas declared that he will announce in five days if he will endorse any candidates for the runoff and whom, after consultation with his own campaign team, whom he thanked for their efforts and hard work.

General Bronislav Grazrod will face in the runoff instead Zvezdana Serebryak, the leader of the United Progressive Socialist Party, who obtained 19,1% of the vote, ten points behind Grazrod. Serebryak, 49, a veteran politican, she has been the leader of the far-left political party since 1572, and she was Foreign Minister from 1573 to 1576 and President of the Republican Council (head of government) from 1576 and 1579. That year she was defeated by the Mordvanian Republican Party leader, Bogdan Privsek, who returned to power after six years. Serebryak continued as leader of the opposition until 1583, when she officially resigned as General Secretary of the United Progressive Socialist Party, although he continued with her seat in the Mordvanian parliament and with an active role in national politics. Unlike Grazrod and Baravykas, Serebryak has run mostly focused on domestic issues, attacking the fiscal conservative economic policy of Privsek's government, without much focus on foreign policy.

Serebryak remains a controversial and polarizing politician but who, despite the declining results of her own political party in the later years, is still relatively popular between Mordvanian voters. Her aggressive political style has caused her being labelled as a "populist" and "far-left demagogue", and has created her many enemies, not only inside and outside her country, but in her own political party, affected with many defections and internal strife. While the left-wing coalition of the Republican Social Radical Party and Serebryak's United Progressive Socialist Party (1573-1579) had some achievements, such as the introduction of single-payer healthcare and same-sex marriage in Mordvania, the expanding of social welfare and increase of funding in education, and with Mordvanian involvement in the Kaljuran civil war and the negotiation of the Denil Accords as main achievements in foreign policy; she was accused of wasting time and reasources in petty causes which barely served Mordvanian national interests, such as the diplomatic tensions with the Nentsian government, which complicated relations with Severyane -then an, although controversial, ally of the Republic of Mordvania-, and which many felt that Serebryak had turned into an useless personal conflict. The last years of the coalition were also marked by low economic growth, an slight increase of unemployment and the national debt, which were likely the main cause to her defeat in the 1579 elections and the return of the center-right Mordvanian Republican Party to power. Even if elected, however, she would have to deal with a center-right and centrist majority in the parliament at least until the 1585 elections, so the influence of the new president would be rather limited on domestic policy. Serebryak has announced that she will not attempt to force a change of government before that date. She has also announced that she will retire from power either if she fails to be elected as president or when her six year term finishes.

Zeltko Miskalinc, a political scientist and prestigious scholar on Mordvanian republicanism, was fourth with a disappointing 13,8% of the vote. Although technically an independent candidate, he had been endorsed by both the center-right Mordvanian Republican Party and the centrist Republican Liberal Party, who decided to agree in supporting a non-partisan candidate. But Miskalinc, who had only a short political experience as member of the parliament between 1566 and 1569, proved to be uncomfortable in the political arena, despide spending most of his academic life writing about it. His performance in the last TV debate, which wasn't entirely disappointing but in which many voters described as "pedant" and "arrogant" ended with his most serious chances to at least going to the runoff. He was endorsed by the center-left Radical Democratic Party in last days of the electoral campaign, after their own candidate had decided to withdraw, but this had a very limited effect on the final result. The Mordvanian Republican Party is expected to endorse Grazrod in the second round, while the Republican Liberal Party and the Radical Democratic Party had not declared their official stance so far.

Bogdana Ulam, the leader of the Coalition of Constitutional Forces -a multi-ethnic coalition of liberal and centrist political parties- was fifth, with 10.9%, while Mordvanian Communist Party candidate obtained 6.6%. The Mordvanian Communist Party is currently the only political party which has openly endorsed Serebryak in the second round. The Mordvanian ultranationalist candidates had a poor result, with barely a 1,9% of the vote combined.

Gazrod is the favourite to win in the second round so far, a not only because his ten-points lead in the first round. The elections have showed that the Mordvanian Republican Armed Forces are still highly popular for Mordvanian voters, as candidates with a military background had a 48% of the vote combined, although it is unclear if that will translate into an automatic vote for Grazrod.

"The result of the elections was somewhat predictable and at the same time highly disappointing for many voters", Mara Sadzanek, Professor of Political Theory in the State University of Seznica pondered. "The voters may consider restraining the choice between another head of state of military background and a politician who has been constantly on the first political line for almost the republic was established. But it could be also understood as a choice between stability and continuity on one hand, and anti-establishment vote. Or simply a choice between a head state with military or civilian background, between an active president or one willing to play a secondary or arbitrer rule, or one focused on domestic policy or rather having an ambitious foreign policy. In any case, many voters may consider that it is a very limited choice, as the candidates they voted for in the first round stand for many different things that the final choice".

Blaz Stuchkek, a renowned sociologist and political philosopher who has been serving as ambassador in Carpathia and Moldova recently, believes that voters are as likely to make an statement about which direction they would like the country to go as a valoration of what they have valued most in these 18 years of democratic governance...as both candidates promise and offer many things, but nothing that has not already being tested in our relatively short democratic experience". Stuchkek predicts that the final result may be more balanced and less polarizing than many people believe.