Pushing a Pebble Down a Hill

[Flo]

The Capital District, West Brigidna
Septum, 1598

There had been much work in the capital district over the past several years, on developing new systems, integrating old ones, and forming the new state. This work was long and difficult, and had found at least moderate success in most areas. 

With the foundation of the new West Brigidnan Union the matter of old ties became a topic of conversation. Namely, the West Brigidnan Economic Agreement (WBEA) which had been initially formed in the 1570s after being deliberated upon for some years, even decades if one considered some of the most early academic discussions. 

With the new state being formed the WBEA was now largely a moot point outside of members Kave and Ostland. Rather than continue the WBEA, however, it could be simple enough to just establish close economic relations with the two rather small states, and maintain some of the agreements in the WBEA, such as currency and open borders. 

The WBEA always had ambitions for being something more but never developed as such. The times were never right, and rival economic organizations developed in tandem, such as the one spearheaded by the Lanlanians.

However in recent years the climate had changed. Lanlania softened. Nerysia began slowly opening itself up. There was a group within the WBU legislature who had ambitions of a larger WBEA, not just for the West Brigidnan states, but perhaps the entire continent. Eventually, the more ambitious leaders believed, they could go global. This was seen as perhaps overly ambitious, but for them, such lofty goals typically resulted in an achievement somewhere near the destination, even if not quite so far. 

So, an email was crafted -- a rough agenda of topics to discuss. The major and more ambitious pieces were there, open borders, currency, and others. As well there were minor pieces that would likely be easier to agree on, such as visas, imoorts/exports, tariffs, etc.

The email highlighted the success of the WBEA at uniting diverse peoples and building a robust economy (one of the largest in the world) and how, on a larger scale, this could potentially be reproduced. 

The email was sent to all the nations of Brigidna, from the large, the Lanlanias, Nerysias, Severyanes, to the moderates, the Gehennas, the Lomarres, the Karjelinns, to the smalls, the Nentsias, the Ashfords, the Harmajaas. 

It was incredibly ambitious. It was likely to be unsuccessful, at least in some capacity. It was bold. It was done.

And so, a pebble was pushed down a hill. Where it would land, and what it would do along the way, was still unknown.

[Nentsia]

Zemaita - Kingdom of Nerysia

A tall, slender man in a black three-piece suit stepped inside a black, luxurious government car that had been waiting in front of the Nerysian Foreign Ministry building. His face was long, oval-shaped, with every inch of the skin covered by wrinkles. His eyes almost disappeared beneath his own eyelids and the big eye bags. One of his eyebrows was permanently lifted, giving the man a natural sceptical facial expression. He had a mouth, but barely any lips. It was just a horizontal line.

‘Good morning, Dubius,’ a man in the car said as he got in. The slender man, Dubius, shook his hand as he sat down and closed the door. The driver began to drive through the fog of the early morning.

‘Any news?’
‘Not much, Excellency,’ Dubius replied.
‘We have received a diplomatic cable from the WBU. They are proposing a Brigidnan conference.’

Dubius turned his head to the Minister of Foreign Affairs next to him in the backseat and kept staring at him, with his typical sceptical gaze.

‘The position of the government is that we are willing to discuss the easing of travel restrictions and visa policy, but that we also want to put regional security and economic cooperation on the agenda. We want you to lead the negotiations.’

Dubius stared at the foreign minister in disbelief. ‘I am not a negotiator. I don’t make deals.’
‘It’s been decided. Get used to the idea,’ the Foreign Minister harshly responded. ‘You understand the Florinthians and Oslans better than anyone in this country. You have been the king of the West-Brigidna section for ages.’

There was a moment of silence. ‘The Minister of Defence and the Minister of Security have agreed to set up a special liaison unit between the Foreign Operations Department’s WBU specialists and the WBU sections of the Third Department of the General Staff. This unit would come entirely under your command during the negotiations.’

Dubius nodded, as he knew everything had been decided for him already. He wasn’t being asked, be was being ordered.

A week later, the Foreign Ministry hosted a consultative meeting with the newly formed WBU Committee to discuss the Florinthian proposals and to formulate a response. Gaiseric Dubius was present at the meeting, and it was chaired by Foreign Minister Rechiar Nekrusis.

‘As you all know our Florinthian friends have sent us a proposal’, Nekrusis said to a room full of diplomats, political strategists and policy advisors. ‘His Majesty is of the opinion that we should respond positively to such an initiative. His Majesty also stressed however, that we should put Nerysian concerns on the table as well. We welcome a Brigidnan dialogue over freedom of movement, but we also want regional security and trade included in that dialogue. We will share our position with the WBU and our Lomarran and Lanlanian allies.’

As the Nerysian government circulated its initial response, Gaiseric Dubius instructed his intelligence stations in the WBU to approach their sources and networks near the government to find out anything they could about its intentions and plans. In Lomarre and Lanlania, Nerysian ambassadors went to their respective foreign ministers to discuss and coordinate their views on the WBU's proposals.

[Flo]

Sappa, Harmajaa

"Minister, it is good you have arrived. We have news!"

The Minister of Economy for the Saamo Socialist Republic, Ábel Komini had just returned from a visit to a new factory in Sappa. It was one of the many developments happening in the region that had been a priority for the Harmajaan government for years now.

"You have news?"

"We have news."

"Well, lets get inside and get on with it." Komini was not one for wasting time, and was rarely amused. They went inside the government building -- it was much more elaborate than some of the initial outposts built in the city, then a village.

They entered the Ministers temporary office and shut the door.

"So, what is new?"

"Minister, we have a message from West Brigidna. They are proposing a conference of all the governments of Brigidna. We have been invited."

"So we have?" The Minister was, admittedly, a bit surprised. Harmajaa was a long way from West Brigidna, and though petrol and other resources from Harmajaa were sold around the globe, it was not common for a small state like Harmajaa to be invited to something like this. "What is their aim?"

"It is very vague. I am not certain."

The Minister frowned. "I assume the Tyko has a response?"

"They do. They are apprehensive but willing to listen. They have reached out to Severyane to see of they have any response as well."

Komini did find this rather strange, but there could be benefits. A planned economy like Harmajaas, still so young at that, could see dangers as well, however.

"Send a cable to Tyko. I am returning today. I want to discuss this with the other Ministers. Tell them..." He paused. "Tell them I am interested, but we have much to discuss before we make any serious response."

"And what of the rest of your tour of Sappa?"

The Minister smiled, a rare sight indeed. "You finish it. You are a deputy minister and I trust your judgement. Write up a report and get it to me when you are finished."

The deputy minister sighed as he went to carry out his orders.

[Arkiania]

Bukovina, Saratov
Septem 1598

The Saratov President sat in his office shortly after a meeting had included which involved sending the letters which re-initated negotiations of a Marzannan Customs Union various nations and one that addressed the letter sent from West Brigidna. The agreement was highly attractive to the President, but with current ambitions on his mind, the invited and discussions on table they also seemed far fetched to him. Togethor with his Foreign Minister he drafted the response summarized as "We will be observing this new development and have taken careful consideration of, but are not interested in the deal at this time."

[BrumBrum]

Valentina de Liaño received the email along with her Brigidnan Minister Camila Ríos. The two discussed the idea in detail and with the other party leaders in the coalition. It was clear they needed to bring the whole cabinet in, which they did. The meeting was held just 4 days later with the cabinet split initially. Some of the LB members were concerned about a move to potential open borders. However almost all wanted the free trade , co-operation on crime, science and continent wide issues which they had wanted to push at some point in the future. They were not anti-co-operation by any means but they believed Ducados Breizhighist must remain sovereign. An agreement was reached between the three parties that they would attend the meeting, they would consider a single currency option, tax harmonisation , free trade and continent wide agencies and consumer protection regulations. They might even push for a environment policy minimum standards across the continent. However some redlines would be excessive tariffs on countries outside the agreement, any proposal to have open borders for immigration and rules on religious policy and against secular values believing individual nations should have rights to determine policy on freedom of religion.

The letter was penned back by the Valentina de Liaño confirming the attendance of her and her foreign and brigidnan minister and Ducados Breizhighist's interest in the project while highlinghting some concerns they would be raising. The letter struck a positive tone while being honest about the challenges.

[Rommy]

Baronserg, Varenthia
The Citadel

The so-called metaphorical pebble had eventually made its way to the upper echelons of the High Chancellery of Varenthia. While such a message, even one intended for the High Chancellor himself, would have typically already been discussed in private by the High Council before being brought to the High Chancellor's attention; there was a sense of urgency or was it unease? That caused the Vice Chancellor of Foreign Affairs to go directly to the High Chancellor himself.

Vice Chancellor Janos Lavete was the man responsible for slowly pushing Varenthia from its position of general isolation from the past few decades, as one of the newest members of the High Council, his views were often seen as 'radical', however High Chancellor Alexander Stark was always open to his thoughts. Lavete knew he would receive flack from the other Chancellors for going around them, but even one small chance to increase Varenthia's international outreach would be welcomed.

"Janos, I've always respected your ideals and your ambition, however this seems to be a stretch at most. The other families and most political factions will not go for this, the Katenbourghs maybe, but for us to join such a proposal would be a drain on resources suited elsewhere," began High Chancellor Stark, looking out the window from his office.

"Sir, I'm not saying even to join, all I wish is to attend the talks and see what comes of it. Opening up markets will allow Varenthian goods and services a much wider range of exports....I also believe I could push for the creation of a sort of research grant program. Imagine all the potential investment from that for all our projects."

Stark turned around looking right at Janos, his face while being as stoic as ever those who knew him personally could see his contemplation and his interest at such an idea.

"You have my permission to attend, reply to the West Brigidnans but be sure to request research cooperation and grants to be included in the agenda."

[Hadash]

Slovograd, Republic of Mordvania

"Open borders? Common currency?", Milivoj Juresek told Minister of Finance Kazys Gimbutiené while opening his portfolio. "The West Brigidnans are going increasingly delusional".

There was some spontaneous irritation on his voice. Juresek had been Minister of Economic Development from 1582 to 1585, years in which he had his first experiences in trade negotiations. During the years of Zvezdana Serebryak's presidency, he served in the Social and Economic Council, a non-partisan advisory body, and after 1591, he was appointed Deputy Minister of Finance under Czeslaw Godlowsky. He had become one of the Mordvanian Republican Party members to leave the right-republican political party and join Agnieszka Szczepanska's administration. Juresek had returned then to the Ministry of Economic Development, one of the main members of the new government's economic team.

Juresek had personally experienced how negotiations between the Republic of Mordvania and the West Brigidnan Union to discuss a trade agreement had been fruitless, at times unnecessarily postponed or simply ending in a failure.

"Yeah", Kazys Gimbutiené replied, "definitely that's not going to happen. But let's see where this could lead us".

"Have you ever been in West Brigidna, Karel?", she asked her assistant, before entering in the main room where meetings of the Republican Council were often held.

[Battlion]

Nüvel Stirrenin, The Kingdom of Aurentine - Cabinet Meeting Room

“Göüd Morgen all, we have plenty to discuss this morning!”, First Minister Adelar Rühl exclaimed as Ministers of the Cabinet began entering the room. Despite his cheerful tone, he knew that some of the mornings agenda would be contentious and that he’d have to ensure he remained in control of the meeting.

As the cups of tea were poured, a common occurrence at the beginning of a cabinet meeting, Ministers were having their own conversations amongst themselves flittering between Aurentine and Lanlian as had become common throughout the nation in the last few decades.

Ministers took their seats as the Adelar opened up his binder folder containing copies of the agenda and other important documents relating to it. First and foremost, they discussed a report from the Royal Household on recent expenditures and the Transportation Bill that was currently passing through the Senate before they reached what Adelar considered to be the most potentially explosive item on the agenda... West Brigidna.

“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs received this communication from our neighbours in the WBU in the last few days, Fabian passed this forward to my office and I believe we should have some discussion it now”. He began passing copies of the communication to his immediate right where the Minister of Foreign Affairs Fabian Tendler was sat and whom passed copies round the table.

“Open Borders?, Common Currency?.... what is this?” exclaimed the Minister of the Interior Stefan Kleiber - murmurs had began to circle round the room. From what Adelar could tell most seemed to be confused by the timing of the proposal, it had seemed to have come out of nowhere and had somehow succeeded in bringing a flurry of activity in the Aurentine Government Ministers.

“I’m not proposing we should commit to anything at this stage, nor should we rule anything out... the Konservativ Paart was elected on a platform of economic competency and we must absolutely maintain that... and this is an opportunity to boost our trading relationship with our biggest neighbour and our fellow Brigidnans” stated Adelar.

After some brief discussion on the merits of the proposal, agreement was reached on the First Minister’s plan to issue a response indicating that Aurentine was willing to consider the West Brigidnan’s proposal and further willing to offer it’s own submissions.

Once the meeting was over, Adelar felt it had been one of the more spirited cabinet meetings since he became First Minister in 1595. But, he had succeeded in convincing his cabinet to agree to engage on this proposal and ensured that an official response confirming this was sent to the West Brigidnan’s and made sure to note the subject to discuss with the Koning/King at their next private audience.

[Lomarre]

Trivenze, Lomarre
9:00 AM

“I don’t recall Florinthus and Olsanburg being so ambitious since the colonial era.” King Vittorio-Emanuele quipped, as he read through the email. A small laugh came from the speaker-phone while the man across from him sighed.

Minister Lorenzo d’Alerza of the Council of Nobles replied from across the desk. “Sire, in all seriousness, I do believe it to be the right move to observe it at the very least. Ambassador Sforza says that he would be happy to attend the conference and represent the nation. He’s proven to be a good choice as ambassador to the W.B.U.”

Vittorio remarked again after taking a quick sip of his morning coffee. “Hmmph. That’s because Leopoldo Sforza was our previous ambassador to Olsanburg. Good man, rather quiet, and smarter than the average idealistic diplomat. After all...It’s much more difficult to make a deal with an Olsan than a Florinthian. Which is why Sforza remains an ambassador and Fizari isn’t.”

Minister of the Council of Mayors, Ginevra Parelli chimed in on the speaker-phone. “So I take it you will give approval to attend?”

The King finished his coffee and finally looked up from his computer. Vittorio leaned back in his chair and rubbed his chin in a moment of thought. “If Leopoldo attends, he should already know that a single currency is out the window. We’re not giving up the ducat for some faux paper-based currency. As a matter of fact-“

He stood up and looked out the window for a moment, his hands behind his back.

“Make it clear we support this conference as long it creates a more friendly atmosphere for the continent. Make it clear that our attendance will be based on a healthy amount of skepticism too. And lastly...” Vittorio turned his head slightly towards the ministers. “Make it crystal clear that our sovereignty is not to be trifled with no matter what nonsense they promise or propose. I’ll email Leopoldo a few things to bring up in the conference.”

[Nentsia]

Mstsislavsk, Nentsia

The Nentsian red-and-white flag waved on top of the Presidential Palace as the morning sun illuminated the capital. Right beneath it was the conference room where President Ksenia Vynnychuk was having a meeting with the National Security Council. Since the disturbances in the country now several years ago, Vynnychuk more or less presided over a crisis regime. Martial law had never been withdrawn since then, and the Nentsian military, secret services, and the Internal Troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs dominated the government like never before.

The country was a police state, in total lockdown, isolated and an international pariah. Ksenia Vynnychuk had paid a high price for this loyalty of her enforcers. They had kept her in the saddle, but they were now essentially calling the shots, and she had to serve their interests. Mostly material interests.

The subject of the meeting were the invitations of the WBU and Saratova to attend international summits. Not long after the meeting however, someone high up in the echelons of the regime leaked the documents to the Mordvanian intelligence, MERSEK. For you, dear reader, I have attached a copy.

[TRANSCRIPT OF THE MEETING OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY COMMITTEE, SEPTEM 1598

Top Secret

Participating at the meeting: Ksenia Vynnychuk (President), General Ihar Kumieha (UGB), General Viktar Cierashkovich (Min. of Defense), Aksana Taraseva (Min. of Justice), Yulia Lutskevich (Procurator General), Uladzimir Statkevich (Chief of Presidential Administration), General Siarhei Panchuk (Com. in chief of the Army), Admiral Dmitry Yanushkevich (Com. in chief of the Navy), Colonel General Matvey Lysenko (Com. in chief of the Air Forces), General Vasyl Skaryna (chief of military intelligence), Mikita Vojtovych (Min. of Foreign Affairs), General Gennadi Stetsyuk (Ministry of Internal Affairs) and another 6 unnamed secretaries.

The meeting started at 9:00 AM and ended at 11:00 AM.

Ksenia Vynnychuk:
Today we discuss the minutes I forwarded to you all of a telephone conversation between myself and ambassador Oleg Sapozhnikov with regards to the invitations we have received from the WBU and our Saratovan neighbours.

Mikita Vojtovych (MFA):
Our ambassador to the WBU has spoken to WBU diplomats to learn more about the proposal. He believes the proposals are wildly ambitious, unrealistic and pretentious. Nevertheless he feels it is a chance for the country to show a positive face to Brigidna, and perhaps it maybe open a window to the West for our country.

Ihar Kumieha (UGB):
Intelligence reports received from our Denil station are skeptical of the WBU's intentions. Let me cite from one of them. ''WBU diplomats and MFA staff are busily speculating on the purpose and viability of the immensely ambitious proposals produced by the WBU. The majority seem not to believe anything meaningful to come of it. A significant number of them believe it should be seen as a cry for attention, and that the actual goal is a much more modest aim of bringing together Brigidnan countries. For Nentsia, there is little to gain. Chances are that the Nentsian government will have to say no to many proposals, and will aggravate its international reputation and be seen as a diplomatic defeat at home.''

Vasyl Skaryna (Mil. Intel.):
Seconded.

Uladzimir Statkevich (Pres. Staff):
And we have an alternative where we could possibly score a small diplomatic success.

Ksenia Vynnychuk:
The Saratovans have launched a counter-initiative of their own and invited Marzannan countries to discuss economic integration. A customs union. I think, for our country, this is very interesting. Our economy depends heavily on Saratov. We should take this into account when taking a decision.

Viktar Cierashkovich (MoD):
We should take into consideration how Severyane would view this. The proposal has excluded Severyane. They have invited Mordvania. Our enemies are invited, but our main supplier of military goods is not. This will have consequences.

Mikita Vojtovych (MFA):
We could propose to invite Severyane as well.

Vasyl Skaryna (Mil. Intel.):
Its absolutely unacceptable if our military relations with Severyane are damaged.

Ihar Kumieha (UGB):
We could attend the first round of talks, see if we can score some easy points. If the MFA allows it, we could include some of our Razvedchiki* in our diplomatic delegation. They are well positioned to report on the talks and discussions and discretely pass them on the Severyan intelligence. This may give assurances to Severyane that we are not turning on them. I want my guys in on this if we are participating anyway, since the Mordvanians might get involved.

Ksenia Vynnychuk:
The Mordvysky's are a sneaky seditious bunch of reptiles. I agree we should swarm every single Mordvanian diplomat or official with our agents. We must stay on top of them and watch every move they make.

Siarhei Panchuk (Army):
Never trust a Mordvysky.

Vasyl Skaryna (Mil. Intel.):
I pity the men who would have to shake hands with Mordvysky diplomats.

Gennadi Stetsyuk (MVD):
Maybe attach a regiment from the Internal Troops to beat the Mordvysky delegation to death. They could use our guard dogs too!

Mikita Vojtovych (MFA):
Let's get back on topic. I do think our country needs economic integration with especially Saratov. The other Marzannan countries could benefit us as well. We have by far the cheapest workforce. I can see Marzannan factories flocking into our country. This could help pacify our society.

Gennadi Stetsyuk (MVD):
I can see thousands of educated people move out of the country to work and live elsewhere. And I can see Mordvanian centers of hostile subversive propaganda move into our country. Entering a Marzannan economic bloc is the biggest threat to our sovereignty.

Mikita Vojtovych (MFA):
I think you are now being too pessimistic. If we do not take this opportunity, we risk that public discontent with a lack of economic growth is again seized upon by Mordvanian subversive agents to try overthrow the government.

Ihar Kumieha (UGB):
I have to agree with Mikita here. But I see your point, Gennadi.

Aksana Taraseva (Min. of Justice):
These matters are not urgent now, they're things to consider for the future. Talking is just talking. We haven't signed any treaties yet, we remain masters in our own house. Should we enter in economic treaties, we can take extra measures to monitor hostile elements operating within our country and take steps to suppress them.

Ksenia Vynnychuk:
That seems wise.

Mikita Vojtovych (MFA):
I am glad that you want to give it a chance, President. This is an opportunity for our country.

Viktar Cierashkovich (MoD):
I still oppose entering any talks on economic integration which includes Mordvania, a hostile aggressor that openly intends to undermine the Nentsian government and meddles with our domestic affairs.

Gennadi Stetsyuk (MVD):
Viktar is right. Economic integration is good. But we still need to think about how this affects our security. We might end up in a trade bloc with a hostile country.

Vasyl Skaryna (Mil. Intel.):
If one Mordvanian truck with goods enters this territory I'll have it seized and its driver arrested.

Yulia Lutskevich (Procurator General):
This is why you are not in charge of issuing arrest warrants.

Vasyl Skaryna (Mil. Intel.):
We still have martial law in place. I can actually issue arrest warrants.

Uladzimir Statkevich (Pres. Staff):
I propose that we politely reject the WBU invitation, or that we only attend as observers and not as participants. We accept the Saratovan invitation, request Severyane to be a participant to that as well, and we covertly keep them informed of every gossip we hear related to that topic.

Ihar Kumieha (UGB):
This sounds agreeable.

Vasyl Skaryna (Mil. Intel.):
I can live with that.

Viktar Cierashkovich (MoD):
Fine then.

Mikita Vojtovych (MFA):
I fully agree.

Ksenia Vynnychuk:
Does anyone still have any major objections to this?... Then we should go with the proposal of Uladzimir and see how things develop. Then lets move on to the next topic on the agenda for this morning; the updated version of the national security doctrine. (...)

END OF TRANSCRIPT]

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* Razvedchik; Nentsian phrase for people involved in or working in foreign intelligence